UK Intel Reveals Russia’s December Strikes Mark New War Phase

On December 28, 2024, the British Ministry of Defence (MoD) Intelligence Service released a concerning report about Russia’s escalated missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. This recent surge, which unfolded in mid-December, represents one of the most coordinated and large-scale strike campaigns seen in recent months.

The operation involved an extensive deployment of advanced weaponry, including Kalibr cruise missiles (NATO designation: SS-N-30A Sagaris) and uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), colloquially known as “kamikaze drones.”

A New Phase of High-Intensity Strikes

The December offensive marked a significant escalation in Russia’s aerial campaign. Approximately 90 Kalibr Land Attack Cruise Missiles were launched from Russian Black Sea Fleet warships and aircraft platforms.

These missiles, known for their precision and long-range capabilities, have become a cornerstone of Russia’s strategy. With a range of up to 2,500 kilometers and advanced guidance systems, Kalibr missiles are highly effective at targeting critical infrastructure and strategic military installations.

In addition, Russia deployed over 180 One-Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS), commonly referred to as kamikaze drones. These drones are low-cost, expendable platforms designed to crash into targets and deliver explosive payloads with precision.

By launching these drones from multiple sites, Russia executed simultaneous attacks across various regions, overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and striking key infrastructure such as energy grids and industrial hubs.

The combined use of advanced missiles and drones reflects a calculated effort to degrade Ukraine’s operational capabilities while exhausting its air defense systems.

Evolving Strategies and Tactical Shifts

Since August 2024, Russia’s approach to aerial warfare has shifted noticeably. Rather than relying on frequent smaller-scale attacks, Russian forces appear to be stockpiling precision-guided munitions and drones for periodic, high-impact strike waves.

This strategy allows for concentrated attacks that cause greater damage and strain Ukraine’s defense systems. By saturating Ukrainian airspace with diverse threats—from sophisticated missiles to mass-produced kamikaze drones—Russia can maximize the effectiveness of its operations.

🇷🇺Rusia produce en masa drones kamikaze diurnos y nocturnos pic.twitter.com/WHFCD1uWOr

— txanba payés #NoEnMiNombre (@txanba) March 7, 2024

However, this shift does not preclude the use of smaller, more targeted strikes. Russia retains the flexibility to launch punitive attacks with little warning, leveraging its stockpiles to keep Ukraine’s defenses on constant alert.

This dual approach—alternating between large-scale offensives and smaller strikes—adds an element of unpredictability, complicating Ukraine’s efforts to develop a cohesive defense strategy.

Implications for Ukraine and the Broader Conflict

The December strikes highlight the immense challenges faced by Ukraine’s air defense systems. Protecting critical infrastructure from both advanced cruise missiles and low-cost drones requires a multi-layered approach and significant resources.

Western-supplied air defense systems remain a vital component of Ukraine’s strategy, but the increasing scale and frequency of Russian attacks underscore the need for additional support.

Saturation attacks, in particular, place overwhelming pressure on Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. Kamikaze drones, deployed in large numbers, are especially difficult to counter due to their low cost and ease of mass production.

These drones can bypass traditional defenses, targeting civilian infrastructure and military assets with devastating efficiency. Strengthening protective measures for energy grids, industrial hubs, and other critical facilities will be crucial in mitigating the impact of future strikes.

Despite international sanctions and logistical challenges, Russia has demonstrated a sustained capacity for prolonged aerial campaigns. The December operations serve as a stark reminder of Russia’s commitment to undermining Ukraine’s resilience and warfighting capabilities.

As the conflict evolves, the pattern of infrequent but intense strike waves is likely to continue, with significant implications for the course of the war and regional stability.

The British MoD Intelligence Service’s report underscores the importance of continued vigilance and international support for Ukraine. Bolstering air defense capabilities, enhancing protective measures for civilian infrastructure, and maintaining a steady supply of advanced defensive systems will be essential in countering Russia’s aggressive tactics. The outcome of this struggle will not only shape Ukraine’s future but also set critical precedents for modern warfare and global security.