Russia Threatens Oreshnik Missile Use After Ukraine’s Drone Blitz

The war in Ukraine has entered yet another volatile phase. Following Ukraine’s largest drone assault since the start of the full-scale war—where over 337 drones targeted Russian territories, including 74 near Moscow—Russia threatens Oreshnik missile retaliation, raising fears of further escalation.

Russian lawmakers have now floated the possibility of using this advanced hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in response to Ukraine’s intensifying drone warfare.

On March 11, 2025, Andrey Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, openly suggested that the Kremlin should consider deploying this weapon in response to Ukraine’s increasing use of drone warfare. While President Vladimir Putin has the final say, the mere fact that such discussions are happening at the highest levels of government underscores how rapidly the war is escalating.

This move marks a critical moment in the conflict. The Oreshnik missile, previously used in November 2024 to strike military targets in Ukraine, is touted as one of Russia’s most advanced hypersonic weapons.

It travels at speeds exceeding Mach 10, making it nearly impossible to intercept with current air defense systems. If Moscow decides to use it again, it would send a chilling message not only to Ukraine but to NATO and the West—one that could drastically alter the trajectory of the war.

Read more about the previous deployment of the Oreshnik missile

How Did Russia Get There?

Ukraine’s military has significantly ramped up its drone warfare capabilities, and the recent assault proved that Kyiv is willing to take the fight deep into Russian territory.

The attack on March 11 was unprecedented in scale, forcing Russian air defenses to intercept hundreds of UAVs over multiple regions, with dozens reaching targets near Moscow. This wave of attacks suggests that Ukraine has improved its ability to bypass Russian air defenses and launch coordinated strikes on critical infrastructure and military installations.

The effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone campaign has caught Russia off guard. While Moscow has relied on missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities for months, this latest Ukrainian operation demonstrated a growing ability to retaliate. Ukrainian military sources claim that the strikes targeted fuel depots, radar installations, and logistical hubs, aiming to weaken Russia’s war machine from within.

Kartapolov’s remarks about using the Oreshnik missile in response indicate that the Kremlin feels increasing pressure to act decisively. He warned that a “stronger response” could involve launching multiple Oresnik missiles, not just one.

What Happens If Russia Uses the Oreshnik Missile?

The use of the Oreshnik IRBM would have far-reaching consequences, extending beyond the immediate battlefield. If Russia launches the Oreshnik missile, the immediate result would be a devastating blow to Ukraine’s military infrastructure.

Capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 10, the missile would be nearly impossible to intercept with current Ukrainian defenses, which rely on a mix of Western-supplied Patriot and NASAMS systems. While Ukraine has successfully shot down Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in the past, the Oreshnik presents a new level of challenge due to its maneuverability and advanced countermeasures.

Beyond its destructive capability, the Oreshnik missile serves as a powerful tool of psychological warfare. Its use would send a message that Russia is willing to escalate in response to what it sees as Western-backed aggression. This could have profound implications for Ukraine’s military morale, as well as for civilian populations already living under the constant threat of Russian bombardment.

Perhaps the most concerning consequence of deploying the Oreshnik missile is the potential reaction from NATO. While the missile is designed for intermediate-range strikes—with a reach of 500 to 5,500 kilometers—its use would directly challenge NATO’s military deterrence posture in Eastern Europe.

Countries like Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states, which already host NATO forces, may push for even stronger military support, potentially leading to the deployment of advanced missile defense systems such as THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) or even offensive counter-strike capabilities.

Read: Can THAAD Counter the Oreshnik Missile?

Additionally, NATO could interpret the missile strike as an escalation that warrants stronger military intervention, possibly including the provision of long-range precision missiles to Ukraine or even the deployment of NATO fighter jets for direct combat roles.

This would dramatically increase the risk of a direct Russia-NATO confrontation, something both sides have sought to avoid but which is becoming increasingly difficult as the war drags on.

What Makes the Oreshnik Missile So Dangerous?

The Oreshnik can reach speeds of Mach 10, making it one of the fastest ballistic missiles in existence. Its high-speed reentry, estimated at 3-7 km/s, makes it extremely difficult to track and intercept. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles, which follow a predictable arc, the Oreschnik can perform maneuvering flight paths, further complicating air defense interception attempts.

One of Oreshnik’s most concerning aspects is its Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. This means that a single missile can carry up to six warheads, each of which can strike different targets. Additionally, it deploys decoys and electronic countermeasures, increasing the likelihood of overwhelming enemy defenses.

The Oreshnik missile can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. Russian officials have hinted that even a conventional strike using multiple Oreshnik missiles could cause destruction comparable to that of a tactical nuclear strike. This blurring of lines between conventional and nuclear warfare raises serious concerns about miscalculations and unintended escalations.

Designed to take out high-priority targets, the Oreshnik missile is capable of striking ABM sites, command and control centers, ports, underground military bunkers, and even aircraft carriers. According to military analyst, Vladislav Shurygin, the missile is believed to be capable of defeating any modern missile defense system currently in operation.

What Comes Next?

With tensions escalating rapidly, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Russia will follow through on its threats. If Putin approves the Oreshnik missile deployment, Ukraine will need urgent military support from NATO to counter the strike.

The risk of a regional arms race, where both sides introduce increasingly advanced weapons into the war, is also growing—raising fears that the conflict could spiral into a broader confrontation between Russia and NATO.

For now, the world watches as Russia debates its next move. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that when Moscow starts discussing advanced missile deployments in response to battlefield setbacks, escalation is never far behind.